Abstract:

This paper finds that a 10-μg/m3 increase in airborne particulate matter[particulate matter smaller than 10 μm (PM10)] reduces life expectancyby 0.64 years (95% confidence interval = 0.21–1.07). This estimateis derived from quasiexperimental variation in PM10 generated byChina’s Huai River Policy, which provides free or heavily subsidized coalfor indoor heating during the winter to cities north of the Huai Riverbut not to those to the south. The findings are derived from a regressiondiscontinuity design based on distance from the Huai River, andthey are robust to using parametric and nonparametric estimationmethods, different kernel types and bandwidth sizes, and adjustmentfor a rich set of demographic and behavioral covariates. Furthermore,the shorter lifespans are almost entirely caused by elevated rates ofcardiorespiratory mortality, suggesting that PM10 is the causal factor.The estimates imply that bringing all of China into compliance with itsClass I standards for PM10 would save 3.7 billion life-years.