@article {Morin2009,
	title = {Towards flash-flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information},
	journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
	volume = {32},
	year = {2009},
	month = {jul},
	pages = {1066{\textendash}1076},
	publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
	abstract = {Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash- flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model which utilizes radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipita- tion estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on the 5 years of data for one of the catchments. Val- idation was performed for a subsequent 5-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire 10- year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70\% detection with no more than 30\% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.},
	keywords = {Dead Sea, Dry climate, flash floods, Hydrological model, weather radar},
	issn = {03091708},
	doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.11.011},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0309170808002145},
	author = {Efrat Morin and Jacoby, Yael and Navon, Shilo and Bet-Halachmi, Erez}
}
