@article {Morin2018,
	title = {Mean, variance and trends of Levant precipitation over the past 4500 years from reconstructed Dead Sea lake levels and stochastic modeling},
	journal = {Quaternary Research; In-press},
	year = {2018},
	abstract = {A novel quantitative assessment of late Holocene precipitation in the Levant is presented, including mean and variance of annual precipitation and their trends. A stochastic framework was utilized and allowed, possibly for the first time, linking high-quality, reconstructed rises/declines in Dead Sea levels with precipitation trends in its watershed. We determined the change in mean annual precipitation for 12 specific intervals over the past 4500 yr, concluding that: (1) the twentieth century was substantially wetter than most of the late Holocene; (2) a representative reference value of mean annual precipitation is 75\% of the present-day parameter; (3) during the late Holocene, mean annual precipitation ranged between -17 and +66\% of the reference value (-37 to +25\% of present-day conditions); (4) the driest intervals were 1500{\textendash}1200 BC and AD 755{\textendash}890, and the wettest intervals were 2500{\textendash}2460 BC, 130{\textendash}40 BC, AD 350{\textendash}490, and AD 1770{\textendash}1940; (5) lake-level rises and declines probably occurred in response to trends in precipitation means and are less likely to occur when precipitation mean is constant; (6) average trends in mean annual precipitation during intervals of >=200 yr did not exceed 15mm per decade. The precipitation trends probably reflect shifts in eastern Mediterranean cyclone tracks.},
	doi = {10.1017/qua.2018.98},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/quaternary-research/article/mean-variance-and-trends-of-levant-precipitation-over-the-past-4500-years-from-reconstructed-dead-sea-levels-and-stochastic-modeling/88A2B2B5F98FFAA9F4F5ACF18B06B413},
	author = {Morin, E. and Ryb, T. and Gavrieli, I. and Enzel, Y.}
}
